As I sit here watching the Washington Huskies' preseason practice footage, I can't help but notice something that reminds me of that telling observation about San Miguel's basketball team - while most programs had already begun serious training for the season, they were still shaking off the rust from their offseason break. This comparison strikes me as particularly relevant when evaluating our Huskies' current situation. Having followed college basketball for over fifteen years and attended countless UW games at Alaska Airlines Arena, I've developed a keen sense for what separates promising teams from truly successful ones. This season feels different though - there's an energy around this program that we haven't felt since the days when Isaiah Thomas was draining game-winners, but also several concerning factors that could derail everything.

The first critical factor that keeps me up at night is the team's defensive cohesion, or rather the current lack thereof. Last season, the Huskies ranked 9th in the Pac-12 in defensive efficiency, allowing 72.3 points per game - a number that simply won't cut it if we're talking about NCAA tournament aspirations. During their recent exhibition against Seattle University, I counted at least six instances where defensive rotations were either late or completely missed. Now, I'm not panicking yet - it's early November after all - but what worries me is that this looks familiar. We saw similar defensive lapses throughout last season that ultimately cost them at least four winnable games. Coach Hopkins needs to implement his signature 2-3 zone more effectively, but what I've noticed from watching practices is that the communication just isn't where it needs to be. The players are talking, but they're not saying the right things at the right moments. It's the difference between shouting "screen left!" a second too late versus anticipating the action before it develops.

Offensive consistency represents another make-or-break element, particularly when it comes to three-point shooting. Last year's team shot a respectable 35.2% from beyond the arc, but what the numbers don't show is the wild inconsistency from game to game. I was at the Arizona game where they hit 14 threes and looked unstoppable, then watched them go 3-for-22 against Washington State just four days later. This volatility stems from what I perceive as questionable shot selection. Having analyzed hundreds of hours of game tape, I've noticed our guards tend to settle for contested threes early in the shot clock rather than working for higher-percentage looks. What they should be doing is leveraging their athleticism to attack closeouts and create easier opportunities. I'd love to see them increase their free throw attempts from last season's average of 18.1 per game - getting to the line more often would solve so many offensive droughts.

Then there's the leadership question that nobody seems to be talking about enough. With the departure of last year's senior class, this team lost approximately 68% of its vocal leadership according to my calculations from post-game interviews and behind-the-scenes content. Leadership in basketball isn't just about scoring points - it's about who's holding teammates accountable during tough practices, who's organizing voluntary shooting sessions, and who's the first to pick up a struggling teammate. From what I've observed, Keion Brooks seems to be embracing this role naturally, but he can't do it alone. What concerns me is that leadership development takes time, and the non-conference schedule won't wait for them to figure it out. I remember speaking with former Husty Quincy Pondexter about this very topic, and he emphasized that championship teams typically have multiple leaders who emerge organically throughout the season. Right now, I only see one definitive leader and several potential candidates.

The fourth factor that could determine this season's trajectory is something I call "schedule management." Looking at their calendar, I've identified three particularly brutal stretches that will test their depth and resilience. Between November 25th and December 10th, they face three potential NCAA tournament teams in a span of six games, including back-to-back road contests against Gonzaga and Auburn. Then there's the Pac-12 opening week that sends them to Colorado and Utah - two of the toughest road environments in the conference. What worries me isn't the quality of opponents so much as the spacing between these challenging games. There's simply not enough recovery time built into the schedule, which increases injury risk and mental fatigue. Having covered college basketball for various publications since 2012, I've seen promising seasons derailed by poorly timed schedule clusters like these. The coaching staff needs to be strategic about practice intensity during these stretches, perhaps implementing more film sessions and walkthroughs instead of physically demanding practices.

Finally, and this might be controversial, I believe the development of the freshman class will be the ultimate X-factor. Terrence Hill and Jamal Watkins represent what I consider the most talented recruiting class Washington has secured since 2019, but raw talent doesn't always translate to immediate production. From what I've seen in their limited minutes so far, both players possess tremendous upside but struggle with defensive positioning and understanding situational basketball. Hill in particular has shown flashes of brilliance in transition but looks lost in half-court sets. The coaching staff faces a delicate balancing act - they need to provide enough minutes for development without sacrificing winnable games. In my ideal scenario, these freshmen would be playing 15-18 minutes per game by conference play, but I'm not sure the current rotation allows for that luxury. What gives me hope is that both players appear to be quick studies based on how they've implemented coaching feedback between games.

As the season tips off, I find myself cautiously optimistic about what this team can achieve. The talent is certainly there, and the coaching staff has proven they can develop players over the course of a season. But these five factors - defensive cohesion, offensive consistency, leadership development, schedule management, and freshman integration - will ultimately determine whether this becomes a memorable season or another disappointment. Unlike San Miguel, who was reportedly still shaking off rust while others trained, our Huskies appear to be putting in the work early. The question remains whether that work will translate to consistent performance when it matters most. Based on what I've observed, I'm predicting a 22-9 regular season record and an NCAA tournament appearance, but I've been wrong before. What gives me genuine hope is the palpable sense of urgency I'm detecting from players and coaches alike - they know the stakes, and they seem determined to write a different ending this time around.